Land O' Lakes, FL 34638 · Pasco County · Est. 1,200 SFR homes
49
SFR Active
19
Active Now
11
Pending
19
Off Market
42
Agents
B+
GRADE
~5.9%
Est. annual turnover
~70 sales/yr · 1,200 homes
Agent Dominance Ranking
Weighted · Active ×1.5 · Pending ×2 · Cancelled/Expired ×0.5
#
Agent & Brokerage
Score
Mkt Share
Activity
⚠️ Fragmented Market — Early Mover Advantage Available
Top agent Chad Leonberg (eXp) holds 8.3% — meaningful but not dominant.
42 different agents appear in this snapshot. Consistent farming over 12 months will establish clear dominance.
The territory is contestable now.
Market Share
42
agents
Chad Leonberg (eXp)
8.3%
Keith Jamison (Real Broker)
6.7%
10 agents with pending listings
~33%
All other agents (30+)
~52%
Market Statistics
Total SFR in snapshot
49 properties
Active listings
19 homes
Pending listings
11 homes
Off market (can/exp/wdn)
19 homes
Top agent share
8.3% — Chad Leonberg
Unique agents
42
SmartFarm List
Properties ranked by sell probability · Phase 1 signals (MLS status, ADOM, price, beds) · Add PropertyRadar + InformatioGO to unlock full scoring for all 1,200 homeowners
49
Properties scored
+1,150 to enrich
HOT 75+
WARM 55–74
WATCH 35–54
HOLD <35
Ranked Properties
Sorted by sell probability · Phase 1 signals only
#
Address
Score
Priority
Price
Beds
ADOM
Key Signals
Phase 2 scores all 1,200 Bexley homeowners
PropertyRadar + InformatioGO + PCPAO data adds owner equity, years owned, age, homestead removal, and divorce signals — turning the list from 49 visible properties into a complete ranked list of every homeowner most likely to sell before they call any agent.
PropertyRadar · equity & ownershipInformatioGO · age · phone · emailPCPAO · homestead removalCourt records · divorce filings
Current Listing Snapshot by Status
49 SFR properties · MLS March 2026
Status
Volume
n
Avg ADOM
Med Price
Active
19 listings
19
53d
$645K
Pending
11 listings
11
73d
$619K
Cancelled
13 listings
13
86d
$672K
Expired
4
152d
$577K
TOM/WDN
2
231d
$700K
🔴 All 4 expired listings averaged 152 days on market. These sellers tried and failed. They will relist — and they need a better agent.
Bedroom Distribution — 49 SFR
3 bed
14%
7
4 bed
47% — dominant
23
5 bed
37%
18
6 bed
1
5-bed homes have the highest cancel/expire rate — 9 of 18 (50%) went off market. Pricing at $700K+ is where buyer/seller expectations clash most. Sellers in this tier need realistic pricing guidance before listing.
Home Size Distribution — Heated Sq Ft
1,600–2,000
2
2,000–2,400
Sweet spot
13
2,400–2,800
Most listings
14
2,800–3,200
8
3,200–3,600
7
3,600+
5
Market Statistics
Est. total SFR homes
~1,200
Est. annual turnover
~5.9%
Est. sales per year
~70 homes/yr
SFR median list price
$644,000
SFR avg list price
$675,000
Price range
$390K–$1.4M
Active avg ADOM
53 days
Expired avg ADOM
152 days
Dominant bed count
4-bed (47%)
Sweet spot size
2,000–2,800 sqft
Yr built range
2016–2023
$600–700K Price Tension Zone
8 of 14 listings (57%) in the $600–700K band went off-market. This is where buyer expectations and seller pricing clash most. An agent with SmartFarm data can counsel sellers on realistic pricing before they waste 3–6 months on market.
Avg Year Built: 2020
Bexley is a new-construction neighborhood — the vast majority of homes were built 2017–2023. Owners who purchased 2019–2021 are now 4–6 years in with significant appreciation, approaching the Appreciation Trigger sell zone.
🔴
8 Immediate Targets
All 4 expired listings (150–216 ADOM) and 3 cancelled listings (150–179 ADOM) plus the 371-day withdrawn on Tea Leaf Aly are your highest-priority calls right now. These sellers tried and failed. They want to sell — they just haven't found the right agent. Call this week before a competitor gets there.
🎯
Target the 2019–2021 Buyer
Homeowners who purchased 2019–2021 at low rates now have 4–6 years of ownership and significant equity appreciation. Bexley new construction has appreciated substantially since then. These owners are entering the Appreciation Trigger window — the highest sell-probability cohort in the neighborhood.
🏆
Who to Beat
Chad Leonberg (eXp) leads with 8.3% — 3 active + 1 cancelled. He wins through volume, not farming. Keith Jamison (Real Broker) is close behind at 6.7% with 1 active + 1 pending + 1 expired — versatile but not dominant. Neither agent has locked this neighborhood down. Both are beatable with consistent outreach.
📊
Pricing Conversation Advantage
The $600–700K price band has a 57% failure rate. Most agents don't know this. Walking into a listing appointment at 4-bed Bexley home priced at $650K and showing the seller this data — that 8 of 14 comparable listings failed — is a conversation-winning move that establishes instant credibility.
📬
Campaign Strategy
Target 4-bed homeowners built 2019–2021 first — 47% of all sales, highest equity appreciation. Monthly handwritten market update cards. Add Just Sold cards within 48hrs of every close in the neighborhood. June is peak listing month — start outreach in March to reach sellers before they decide to list.
⏰
Seasonal Timing
Bexley's peak listing season is April–June, with a secondary season in September. The slowest months are December–January. Begin your campaign outreach in March — sellers who are considering listing for spring will be making their agent decision then, not in April when most agents start prospecting.
Your competitive advantage at every listing appointment
You are the only agent with SmartFarm intelligence on Bexley. You know the $600–700K failure rate, the 5-bed cancel pattern, the 153-day expired average, and which 8 homeowners are the most motivated sellers in the neighborhood right now.
No other agent walking through that door has this data. When you present a SmartFarm market analysis at a listing appointment, you're not just another agent — you're the only agent who actually knows this neighborhood's numbers.
Bexley Selling Fingerprint
Pattern analysis from 49 SFR listings (active, pending, cancelled, expired, off-market). The typical Bexley seller owns a 4-bed, 2,400–2,800 sqft new-construction home built 2019–2021. New community — no long-term owners yet. Appreciation trigger is the dominant sell driver.
4 bed
Dominant · 47%
2020
Avg year built
~5.9%
Est. turnover
Listing Status Distribution
Active
19 — on market now
19
39%
$645K med
Pending
11
11
22%
$619K med
Cancelled
13
13
27%
$672K med
Expired
4
8%
$577K med
TOM/WDN
2
4%
$700K med
⏰ 39% of SFR currently active means the market is moving. Start outreach in March to reach sellers before the April–June listing surge.
Seller Trigger Patterns
Why homeowners in Bexley specifically decide to list — discovered from listing data patterns
📈
Appreciation Trigger
Est. 35% of sellers
Bought 2019–2021 · equity hit 35%+ · reached their mental sell number. New construction + Pasco County appreciation = strong catalyst.
🔁
Life Event / Relocation
Est. 30% of sellers
Short-term owners who listed despite limited equity. Job transfer, family change, divorce. Confirmed by high-ADOM pending listings at entry price points.
⚡
Distress / Forced Sale
Highest urgency
Divorce filings · pre-foreclosure · tax delinquent · probate. Confirmed: 1 active divorce filing in PropertyRadar data (4289 Tour Trce). Guaranteed motivated timeline.
⬇️
Upsizing Signal
Growing families
Young family neighborhood — 3-bed owners trading up to 4-bed or 5-bed as families grow. 3-bed homes move fastest (57% absorption rate).
🏦
Free & Clear Exit
6 confirmed (PropertyRadar)
6 Bexley homeowners own free and clear — no mortgage. Zero financial constraint to sell. Highest flexibility of any segment.
Phase 2 enrichment — unlock all 1,200 homeowners
PropertyRadar data already pulled on 48 properties. InformatioGO adds owner age, phone, email, divorce cross-check. PCPAO free for homestead removal signal. Together these turn the Bexley pattern fingerprint into a ranked sell-probability list for every homeowner in the neighborhood.
Estimated from Pasco County patterns · Update with 5yr sold MLS export
Start Campaign
March
before peak season
Peak Listing Months
Apr · May · Jun
When sellers are deciding to list their home. Your outreach needs to land before this window.
Peak Closing Months
May · Jun · Jul
When the most transactions close in this neighborhood. Peak commission opportunity window.
Budget Strategy
March outreach
Concentrate your marketing spend 1–2 months before peak listing season for maximum ROI.
Month
New Listings
Closings
Listed
Closed
Jan
4
5
Feb
8
7
Mar
14
9
AprPEAK LIST
18
14
MayPEAK LIST
16
17
JunPEAK CLOSE
13
15
Jul
9
11
Aug
8
10
Sep
11
9
Oct
9
10
Nov
7
8
Dec
4
5
Multi-Neighborhood Campaign Calendar
With SmartFarm's listing season data for each neighborhood, you can stagger your monthly marketing budget across neighborhoods instead of spending everything at once.
Start outreach for each farm 4–6 weeks before its peak listing month — when sellers are deciding whether to list, not after they've already called an agent.
Example: $500/mo budget
Split $500 across 2–3 neighborhoods based on their listing season — not all at once
Farm A peaks April
Send March campaign — $200 to this farm this month
Farm B peaks July
Save June for Farm B — $200 when that farm is ready
Result
Every dollar lands when sellers are actively deciding — not wasted in the off-season