Lutz, FL 33558 · Hillsborough County · 766 SFR homes
260
Sold 5yr
52
Avg/Year
6
Active
5
Pending
189
Agents (5yr)
B
GRADE
6.8%
5yr avg turnover
3.9% recent (2023–25)
Agent Dominance Ranking
Weighted · Sold ×1 · Active ×1.5 · Pending ×2
#
Agent & Brokerage
Score
Mkt Share
Activity
Wide Open Market — No Dominant Incumbent
The #1 agent holds just 4.9% market share over 5 years — 13 sales total.
189 different agents have listed here. 68% of all listings were handled by one-time agents.
An agent who farms consistently will establish dominance within 12–18 months.
Market Share
189
agents
Gwen Mills-Owen
4.9%
Shauna Rhodes
3.4%
Jennifer Dobbs
2.3%
Robert Cuppernell
1.9%
Non-member + others
~22%
One-time agents (183)
~68%
SmartFarm List
Properties ranked by sell probability · Enrich with PropertyRadar + InformatioGO to unlock full scoring · Currently showing MLS-visible signals only
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Properties scored
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HOT 75+
WARM 55–74
WATCH 35–54
HOLD <35
Seller Trigger Patterns
Why homeowners in this neighborhood decide to list — discovered from 5yr transaction data
📈
Appreciation Trigger
Est. 35% of sellers
Bought 2020–21 · equity hit 40%+ · reached sell number. Median price +52% in 4 years.
🔁
Life Event / Relocation
Est. 30% of sellers
Short-term owners despite minimal equity. Job transfer, divorce, family change.
⬇️
Upsizing / Downsizing
Est. 20% of sellers
Family size changes — 3-bed to 5-bed upsizing or 5-bed to 3-bed empty nesters.
Phase 2 enrichment unlocks the full SmartFarm List
Adding PropertyRadar + InformatioGO data scores all 766 homeowners — not just the 11 currently on market. Owner age, equity %, homestead removal, and divorce signals turn this into a ranked list of who is most likely to sell before they call any agent.
Avg sq ft: 2,749 · Median sq ft: 2,615 · 4-bed is the dominant seller profile at 44% of all transactions.
Market Statistics
Total SFR homes
766
5yr avg annual turnover
6.8%
Recent turnover (2023–25)
3.9%/yr
5yr avg sold price
$553,414
Median sold price
$530,000
Price range (5yr)
$283K–$975K
Price appreciation (5yr)
+52%
Avg sq ft sold
2,749
Active now
6 listings
Pending now
5 listings
Price Appreciation Signal
Avg sold price grew from $408K (2020) to $681K (2024) — a 52% appreciation over 4 years. Owners who bought in 2020–2021 have significant equity built up and are approaching the appreciation trigger zone for selling.
🎯
Who to target first
Focus on homeowners who purchased in 2020–2021 at low rates. They now have 50%+ appreciation and are approaching the mental "sell number." These are your highest-probability prospects before you even pull enrichment data.
⏰
When to outreach
2020–2021 data shows Q2 (April–June) as peak listing months. Start outreach in March — that's when sellers are deciding whether to list before summer. Your handwritten card campaign should hit mailboxes in March every year.
🏆
Who to beat
Gwen Mills-Owen (Century 21) is the closest thing to an incumbent at 4.9%. But with only 13 sales over 5 years she is not actively farming. She wins through referrals, not outreach. Consistent monthly touchpoints from you will win the market.
🔴
Distress opportunities
2 pending listings have ADOM over 100 days (1570 Fox Grape Loop at 117d, 19592 Breynia at 157d). These sellers will need a new agent when they expire or cancel. Have your value prop ready to present immediately when those listings fall off.
📊
Messaging angle
Lead with the 52% price appreciation story. Long Lake Ranch homeowners don't know their home has gone from $408K to $681K median. That's a $273K gain. Showing them this data in a handwritten card or door knock is your conversation opener.
📬
Campaign strategy
Target the 4-bed homeowner first — 44% of all sales. Monthly handwritten market update cards to 4-bed homes owned since 2020–2022. Add Just Sold cards within 48hrs of every close. Build name recognition before the phone call.
Your unfair advantage
You are the only agent with SmartFarm intelligence on Long Lake Ranch. 189 agents have listed here — none of them know the turnover rate is 6.8%, that 4-bed owners are the dominant seller profile, or that 68% of sellers chose a one-time agent who didn't know the neighborhood.
When you walk into a listing appointment at Long Lake Ranch, you walk in with data no other agent has. That's the conversation that wins listings.
Long Lake Ranch Selling Fingerprint
Hyper-targeted pattern analysis from 260 closed transactions over 5 years. The typical LLR seller owns a 4-bed, 2,600+ sqft home bought in 2020–2021 with significant equity appreciation. No dominant agent — the farm is wide open.
4 bed
Top profile · 44%
2,749
Avg sq ft sold
6.8%
5yr avg turnover
Sell seasonality — volume by year
2020
69
9.0%
peak
2021
65
8.5%
2022
37
4.8%
2023
26
3.4%
low
2024
33
4.3%
2025
30
3.9%
YTD
⏰ Action: Start outreach in March to reach spring sellers before they call anyone else. Volume recovers April–June every year.
SmartFarm Intelligence
282 Data Points · 100% MLS Verified
Listing Season & Campaign Timing
260 sold (Close−CDOM) + 11 active/pending (MLS) + 11 cancelled/expired (MLS) · exact list dates
Start Campaign
June
before Jul–Sep peak
Peak Listing Months
Jul · Aug · Sep
Q3 accounts for 31.7% of all LLR listings — the dominant season. Jul alone = 11% of annual volume.
Peak Closing Month
September
36 closings — the single biggest close month. Sellers who list in July close in September.
Secondary Season
Feb · Dec · Nov
February is the strongest winter month (27 listings — 2nd highest overall). Dec and Nov follow closely. Run a November campaign to capture these.
Month
New Listings
Closings
Listed
Closed
Jan
21
25
FebHIGH
27
17
Mar
20
22
Apr
18
16
May
24
23
Jun
19
20
JulPEAK LIST
31
17
AugHIGH
29
23
SepPEAK CLOSE
26
36
Oct
18
14
Nov
23
21
DecHIGH
26
26
Multi-Neighborhood Campaign Calendar
With SmartFarm's listing season data for each neighborhood, you can stagger your monthly marketing budget across farms instead of spending everything at once. Start outreach for each farm 4–6 weeks before its peak listing month.
Example: $500/mo budget
Split across 2–3 neighborhoods based on their individual listing seasons
Spring farm (Apr peak)
Spend March here — $200 to this farm before April listings surge
LLR (Jul peak)
Spend June here — $200 to LLR before its Jul–Sep listing surge
Result
Every dollar lands when sellers are actively deciding — zero wasted off-season spend